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There has certainly been an air of “Risk Off” this week spiked by a couple of factors with US Inflation data and Energy Prices
Global REITs and Global Agg (Bonds) declined over the Quarter. Commodities, Commodities, helped by the energy component, turned positive.
Analysts are revising, upwards, their gold price projections, inflation and witnessing a further pickup in global activity.
We look at the global shift in interest rates and regional trends. Negative rates end, while some go down and others remain the same.
Last week saw the release of the February Consumer and Producer inflation data for the US. The worry was around Producer (or input) price inflation
Jerome Powell gave his Humphrey-Hawkins testimony. The key punchline: “Rate cuts are coming, but not imminent
February was a strong month but, most notably, some asset classes (like the Nikkei) set all-time highs from its previous record set in 1989.
A busy week saw the disclosure of the full Fed meeting minutes, China lowering its 5-year LPR, New highs set by Japanese stocks and an AI-led tech rally
Strong inflation data was released which forced bond yields to rise higher (i.e. bonds fell in value) as enthusiasm of rate cuts became tempered.
It was another difficult week for bonds as caution was sounded by Central bankers over persistent inflation and, therefore, rate cuts.
It was all eyes on the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting.
There’s a lot of conjecture when rate cuts will start but no conviction amongst Central Bankers to start the process just yet.
Global equity funds saw big outflows of $8.68bn. This was the third, week in a row as CBs in the US and Europe pushed back against market expectations
Performance contrast is stark showing how, being uninvested, would have cost an investor substantial returns as a result of missing out on Q4 performance.
The drivers behind are clear enough: (1) endless talk of rate cuts; (2) falling headline inflation and (3) a perceived decline in geopolitical risk
There were some 84,000 attendees & to their credit, the UAE made the effort to widen the audience by including more diverse voices.
The US November employment figure was a key release and showed a healthy gain of +199,000 (Oct: +150,000).
Coming into December provides a good opportunity to review November/YTD 2023 performance.
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